Super Bowl Sunday is a little over a week away and here are some of my favorite bets and props for the game!
First let’s start talking about picking a side in this game. I bet Kansas City’s moneyline right after it opened last Sunday. I picked the Chiefs simply because I’m not going to bet against Patrick Mahomes until he gives me a reason to do so. I haven’t liked the way the 49ers have been playing in these playoffs, so I’m more than happy to take the Chiefs at plus money on the moneyline. That being said, if you like the 49ers, I would wait to bet the game until game day. As much as I hate to bring up Taylor Swift, I think her impact needs to be taken into consideration. Everybody watches the Super Bowl and makes an event out of it. I feel like on game day there will be a lot of casual or first time bettors who will throw a few bucks on the Chiefs to give them a rooting interest. I would not be surprised to see the Chiefs get close to a pick ’em on Super Bowl Sunday after all the casual Chiefs money comes rolling in. If you like the Niners, you will likely get better value if you wait until game day.
Next up, the over/under of 47.5. The Chiefs defense has really played well in the playoffs, and the 49ers have gotten off to slow starts in all of their playoff games. For this reason, I am leaning towards taking the under in this game. I’m like everybody else and want more points in a game because its more fun, but I really wouldn’t be surprised if the under hits pretty easily in this game. I’m not going to make a big wager on this one, but it is just what my gut is telling me.
NOW FOR SOME PROPS!
Noah Gray over 1.5 receptions Mahomes has been going to Gray more in the playoffs, I like him to get at least 2 receptions in this game.
Kyle Juszczyk over 0.5 receptions I wouldn’t throw this bet in a same game parlay, just because he doesn’t get receptions very often. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdy drops off one pass to Juszczyk when he feels pressure from the Chiefs defense.
Pachecho under 17.5 receiving yards Pachecho has not hit this total in all 3 playoff games and he has only gone over 17.5 yards 2 times in the last 10 games. I’ll take the under.
Deebo Samuel under 56.5 receiving yards Deebo has only gone over this total once in the last 6 games and that was against Detroit’s subpar defense. Deebo has also only gone over 56.5 receiving yards 5 times all season, and those were all against bad defenses. I would expect the Chiefs to hold him under 57 yards.
Jauan Jennings over 1.5 receptions and 15.5 receiving yards I think Jennings will get some targets in this game. He will be a good option for Purdy if the Chiefs good secondary covers Aiyuk well. I will be parlaying those two bets, it is currently +142 on Draft Kings.
That’s it for now! Check back in a couple of days as I continue to study some of these props. Good luck and happy betting!